February 24, 2019
Global warming and weather surprises
In the 116th issue of YR, we publish an interview with Alexander Ugryumov, Doctor of Geography, Professor at the State Hydrometeorological Institute, Honored Meteorologist of the Russian Federation on topics of climate change and the possibility of accurate weather forecasting.
Is there global warming? What are the recent weather vagaries? What caused the growing number of tornadoes in the Mediterranean? What is a meteogram? What is the accuracy of today's weather forecasts? How much can a yachtsman trust long-term forecasts?
The specialist answered our and other questions in his latest (as he himself said) press interview on climate and weather forecasts.
Yacht Russia: What is happening with the weather in the world? Can we say that the usual pattern of weather phenomena is broken? Has the weather (in Europe, above all) become less stable and less predictable?
Alexander Ugryumov: Indeed, the weather has become less familiar in recent years (I will talk about its stability and predictability later). Traditionally – traditionally – this fact is associated with global warming, which actually had – I emphasize, HAS! – a place to be. The rise in air temperature — noticeable like this — has begun around 1980. We observed the maximum development of this warming in 2005–2006, then the temperature stabilized and even began to decline slightly.
YR: What is the explanation for this warming? Is it really only one man-made human activity?
A. W .: The official explanation for this warming, adopted by both the World Meteorological Organization and the concepts of our meteorologists, is such that the rise in temperature was due to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. But there is another point of view, I personally adhere to it. Incidentally, it was also adhered to by the world's largest (not even Russian!) Meteorologist Kirill Yakovlevich Kondratiev (who, unfortunately, is no longer with us). I met with him several times, talked. Our conclusion is: yes, some of the global warming is caused by greenhouse gas emissions. The share of the contribution of various causes was not mentioned directly by Kirill Yakovlevich, but I suspect that approximately 75% of the contribution is perennial and secular temperature cycles. …… …
YR: But knowledge of such cycles allows at least a first approximation to estimate the “super-long-term forecast”?
A.W .: And we made such a forecast. Not very deep, from 2013 to about 2025. It turned out that if in the most anomalous of winters (from 2006 to 2007), on the European continent, the temperature was +4.5 С above average winter, then in 2025 it will be +0.5 C. Plus, yes, but only by zero point five tenths of a degree. That is, in principle, we expect a cold snap. And in general, if you look through the press on this topic, then you should see that more and more experts predict the Small Ice Age.
The full version of the interview with A.I. For sullen read in paper edition, which should appear on sale in the coming Tuesday-Wednesday.
302 February 24, 2019 # 8818