116-m room YR we published an interview with Alexander Ugryumov, doctor of geographical Sciences, Professor of the State Gidrometeoisdat, honored meteorologist of the Russian Federation on the topics of climate change and more accurate weather forecasting.
Is there a global warming? What are the recent weather vagaries? What caused the increase in the number of tornadoes in the Mediterranean? What is a meteogram? What is actually the accuracy of today’s weather forecasts? How can a sailor to trust long-term forecasts?
To these and other questions the expert answered our magazine, in his last (as he said) interviews to the press on the topics of climate and weather forecasts.
Yacht Russia: What is happening with the weather in the world? Is it possible to say that the usual pattern of weather events is broken? The weather (in Europe primarily) are less stable and less predictable?
Alexander Ugryumov: Indeed, the weather in recent years has become less familiar (on its stability and predictability I will speak later). Traditionally, traditionally, this fact is associated with global warming, which actually had – and I emphasize had! – the place to be. The rise of temperature is noticeable be – began around 1980. The maximum of this warming we have seen in 2005-2006, the temperature is then stabilized and even started to decrease.
YR: What is all the explanation for this warming? Is still only one technological activity of mankind?
A. U.: the Official explanation for this warming, adopted by the world meteorological organization, and concepts of our meteorologists is that the temperature rise has occurred due to the increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. But there is another point of view, I personally adhere to it. By the way, her adhered to the world’s largest (not even Russian!) meteorologist Kirill Yakovlevich Kondratyev (which, unfortunately, is no longer with us). I have met him many times, talked. Our conclusion is this: Yes, some part of global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions. The percentage contribution of different causes of Kirill Yakovlevich is not directly called, but I suspect that about 75% of the contribution is a multi – year and secular cycles temperature. ………
YR: But the knowledge of these cycles allows at least a first approximation to estimate “supercolony forecast”?
A. U.: And we this forecast was made. Not very deep, from 2013 until about 2025. It turned out that, if the abnormal of winters (2006 and 2007) we have on the European continent, the temperature was at +4.5 above average winter, then in 2025 it will be +0.5 s. Plus, Yes, but only zero point five degrees. That is, in principle, we expect a cold snap. Anyway, if you read it in the Newspapers on this subject, then you should see that more and more experts predict the little ice age.
The full interview with A. I. Ugryumov, read the paper edition, which should appear on sale next Tuesday-Wednesday.